A POSSIBLE ELEMENTARY MODEL FOR EARLY DETECTION OF MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES IN MACEDONIA

Abstract

Predicting the economic crises or existence of macroeconomic imbalances is very useful for national economies. There
are many academic and institutional efforts to make it more efficient. One of it is the EU Commission model based on
Alert Mechanism Report which aims to identify and address imbalances that hinder the smooth functioning of the economies
of EU. Based on it and some other academic experiences and researches made, the Macedonian elementary model for early
detection of macroeconomic imbalances is developed using 15 macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, finance and external
economy indicators grouped in 4 main indicators which are the base for calculation of index as an aggregate (basic) indicator
for detecting macroeconomic imbalances based on weighted values. The model is constructed using the very characteristics
of Macedonian economy and could be used to lunch activities to prevent further and deeply imbalances or possible recession
in the economy.